When planning for your future it is important to keep in mind what the labor market will look like when you are ready to enter it. Which industries will be growing and which ones will be decreasing? Training, experience and education represent substantial time and effort. Therefore you want to consider the possible return for any investment in your human capital.

A growing industry will have more opportunities for future employment. A declining industry, or an industry with lower than average growth, will have less opportunities for future employment. In this case, the demand for your labor will be diminished or nonexistent.

CS Question #1: What do you think influences these trends in industry growth?

The following is a list of industries that are projected to have declining employment in the next 5 years. When reviewing these percentages you may want to compare them to the average economy-wide growth of 15 percent. If the average growth is 15 percent, then no growth is 15 percent less than the average. A decline of 10 percent would be 25 percent less than the average.

Does it seem odd that the oil and gas extraction industry is expected to decline? Especially considering how much the entire economy depends on these resources. The projection is dependent on certain factors. If gas and oil prices are very high the industry may increase production. However, if prices decrease, businesses are less likely to make an investment in research and development. Environmental legislation is also a concern. Many federal lands that may have oil and gas resources are protected from extraction. These protection laws could change, increasing the supply of oil and gas, and therefore altering industry growth. The current declining projection is based on the overall transition to foreign oil and gas deposits that are more profitable for American businesses.

CS Question #2: Do you think it is likely that the decline in the oil and gas extraction industry will occur as projected? Why or why not?

The following is a list of industries that are projected to have growth above the average rate:

It is not surprising that the computer industry is the fastest growing industry. But the amount of growth is unbelievable. The growth rate is over one hundred percent more than the average all-industry growth rate. Because of this immense growth there will be many job opportunities available. The best jobs will go to those individuals with highest level of skill and technical knowledge. Job seekers with computer knowledge or a technological background will find themselves in an excellent position.

CS Question #3: Can human capital in computers and technology assist a job seeker in other growing industries? Why or why not?

The single largest employer in the United States is the government. Employment in the federal government is projected to decline by 9 percent. Meanwhile, employment by the state and local governments is projected to grow by 12 percent. The federal government's decline in employment is due to the desire to reduce the federal budget combined with turning over many programs to state and local governments to run. The increased responsibility at the state and local government level leads to an increase in employment.

CS Question #4: Do you think the skills required for employment in the government are the same as those demanded by private businesses?

Further Thought:

1. Click on one of the careers listed at the top of the case study. Read the information. Determine if the career is in an industry that is projected to grow or decline. Record the career and your answer.
2. Write a letter giving career and/or educational advice to someone just graduating from high school. Use what you know of industry projections to back up your advice.

Data source: Bureau of Labor Statistics